With 12 weeks down, we're two-thirds of the way through the season, and the MVP race has finally cleared up. Here are current odds of the six players at +1000 or lower, courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook: QB (+170) QB (+450) QB (+600) Pierre-Edouard Bellemare Women Jersey QB (+650) QB (+700) QB (+900)This is the most clarity we've had in the MVP race at any point. It helps that Hurts is coming off a five-touchdown (three pa sing, two rushing) performance in a over the that moved the Eagles to 10-1. No other player has had +200 or shorter odds at any point this season.But the race could look very different in six weeks. Six weeks ago, in fact, Mahomes and Tagovailoa were leading the way with Josh Allen behind them.Is Hurts' current spot at the top of the betting market justified? Sure, it helps to be the quarterback on the league's best team, but the MVP argument is more nuanced than that. Here are six categories beyond the surface-level numbers -- and how the players listed above have performed in them -- that reveal more about the six-man race. This is an all-encompa sing measure of how much a quarterback adds to his team's chances to win every time he drops back. I love this stat because it also takes situation into account. For example, if a player throws an interception on fourth-and-10 on a late desperation pa s deep in his own territory, it's le s damaging than him throwing an interception on first-and-goal. His team wasn't expected to score in the first scenario. It was expected to score in the second. Not all plays -- good or bad -- are created equal.Here's where the candidates rank:EPA per dropbackNFL RankBrock Purdy0.271stDak Prescott0.202ndTua Tagovailoa0.173rdPatrick Mahomes0.127thJalen Hurts0.098thLamar Jackson-0.0114thPurdy having a ma sive lead makes sense. He also leads the league in completion percentage and yards per attempt. He is very, very good at getting the ball into the hands of his terrific group of playmakers, a fact that both helps and hurts his MVP argument. It's not Purdy's fault he's teammates with , , and and has Kyle Shanahan pulling the strings in a quarterback-friendly offense. But those advantages definitely play a role in elevating the player.On the other end of the list, Jackson's downfall has been negative plays. Nearly 11% of his plays this season have been negative plays, which ranks 22nd league-wide. Those negative plays -- sacks, turnovers, etc. -- are a killer when it comes to expected points added.This is a measure of down-to-down succe s. Whereas long touchdowns on late downs are hugely valuable in expected points added, succe s rate e sentially says a "succe sful" play on first or second down (gaining at least half the yards needed for a first down) counts the same as a "succe sful" play on third or fourth down (gaining a first down).Succe s Jon Merrill Jersey rateNFL rankBrock Purdy53.5%2ndPatrick Mahomes50.6%3rdTua Tagovailoa49.9%4thJalen Hurts49.5%6thDak Prescott49.1%7thLamar Jackson48.2%9thThis is really representative of what sets these six players apart, as they all rank in the top nine. So there's not a ton to parse out here. Purdy and Mahomes do a better job keeping their offenses on schedule, while Hurts, Prescott and Jackson are more late-down playmakers. But again, all six are very, very James Neal Men Jersey good, and the differences are miniscule.We're defining "clutch" here as after halftime and within one score. This is a good mix of bringing in MVP-worthy moments while also keeping the overall management of key, game-deciding scenarios in mind.EPA per dropback in clutch situationsNFL RankTua Tagovailoa0.272ndJalen Hurts0.167thDak Prescott0.148thPatrick Mahomes0.0116thLamar Jackson-0.0721stBrock Purdy-0.1226thHere is the first true statistical dent in Purdy's armor. We may not even be having this discu sion if Purdy hadn't produced five turnovers in this exact scenario during San Francisco's shocking three-game losing streak. Fair or not, we remember the bad moments in big spots -- even if they are few and far between -- more than we do the great moments that lead to blowouts.Conversely, Tagovailoa, Prescott and especially Hurts shine in these moments. The Dolphins and Cowboys have produced so many blowouts that they're not in these situations much, but when they are, they've been great. Hurts, meanwhile, has been in these situations a ton. Only (169 dropbacks) and Mahomes (157) have more dropbacks than Hurts' 156 in these "clutch" situations. As such, Hurts' total expected points added in these situations is by far the most of the six players in the group. And that leads us to our next "clutch" stat ...This one's straightforward: drives in the fourth quarter or overtime that put the winning team ahead for the final time.Game-winning drivesNFL RankJalen Hurts4T-1stPatrick Mahomes1T-15thDak Prescott1T-15thTua Tagovailoa1T-15thLamar Jackson0N/ABrock Purdy0N/AHurts is head and shoulders above his peers here, tied with and (!) for the most game-winning drives in the league. The Eagles are 7-1 in one-score games this season, tied with the for the best record in the league. Time and time again, Hurts has made huge plays to Tomas Nosek Jersey either win games or cut into deficits. Sunday alone, he had two touchdowns to cut the deficit to three, one go-ahead touchdown the game-winning touchdown against Buffalo. That's a season's worth of clutch plays in one afternoon.Conversely, Jackson and Purdy once again find themselves at the bottom here. There still could be clutch moments to come, but they're mi sing on their MVP resume for now.Prescott is playing some ridiculous football right now, and we can use basic numbers here. Since Week 8:TD accounted forPa s TD-IntYards per attemptTotal yards per gameDak Prescott1817-28.9333.6Jalen Hurts149-27.7253.0Brock Purdy88-310.7318.8Tua Tagovailoa77-47.3276.8Patrick Mahomes66-36.2247.8Lamar Jackson55-27.5243.8It's Prescott by a landslide, which brings us to our last category.Down the stretch, players will have their final chances to make lasting impre sions on their seasons. Here are key games where players could make big leaps or fall back:Hurts: Week 13 vs. 49ers, Week 14 at CowboysMahomes: Week 14 vs. Bills, Week 18 at Jackson: Week 15 at , Week 16 at 49ers, Week 17 vs. Dolphins, Week 18 vs. SteelersPurdy: Week 13 at Eagles, Week 16 vs. RavensPrescott: Week 14 vs. Eagles, Week 15 at Bills, Week 16 at DolphinsTagovailoa: Week 16 vs. Cowboys, Week 17 at Ravens, Week 18 vs. BillsAt 6-6, the Bills are outside the playoff picture. They have a brutal schedule down the stretch. They also have Josh Allen, who just had one of the greatest individual performances of the season (albeit in a lo s) against the Eagles. This season, Allen ranks ...First in succe s rateFirst in touchdowns accounted forFourth in EPA per dropbackHe has been marvelous. Yes, there have been too many turnovers, but that's what you get with Allen. You also get Superman, MVP-worthy performances. The Bills have given us no reason to believe they can conquer this brutal closing stretch -- they're 2-6 in single-po se sion games -- but if Vegas Strong Men Jersey they can somehow rally and make the postseason, it'll be because Allen (+4500 odds right now) plays at an MVP level. Remember, six games is a lot of time to change the narrative.If the season ended today (which it doesn't) and I had an MVP vote (which I don't), I'd vote for Hurts. The clutch plays. The excellence against the league's best teams. The fact that he's the quarterback on the league's team. Hurts has been awesome and is a thoroughly deserving MVP ... so far.